I hope the public sale is 15000 Satoshi to 30000 Satoshi
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价格应该和市场的价格有所变化，不然对早期投资人不公平。中国社区也是这样认为的
A lot of good arguments have been raised. My overall feeling is between 17k and 23k sats makes sense, puts the project at a serious valuation considering where it stands and where it could go, yet leaves room for price appreciation on the open market.
I would like to add that the currently hyperbullish BTC context makes this discussion fraught with difficulty, in particular. Consider, as a fun example: promising project Raydium just launched today, for an instant market cap of 130 million, and a diluted market cap of what… 7 billion+…?
How long does that mania phase last? No one knows, but it’s certainly not endless. The lockup on genesis token sales comes with the huge risk of this bull market being long gone two, three months from now. All valuations may have cratered by then.
Origin sale participants have zero reasons to complain about price appreciation of 100% in little more than what… a month? They face no lockups and little risk. New buyers may find the price high in Sats, but their investment comes with a vast potential. The project is unique, far beyond the concept stage, and – as the first serious DeFi-on-BTC – trailblazing a crypto potential that is as yet largely unearthed.
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I put together a short price forecast for a possible - I am highlighting possible - initial SOV listing price. I took the biggest DeFi projects in the space, adapted their circulating token supply and initial listing price (as shown on coinmarketcap) as per Sovryn’s tokenomics and I made an average. e.g. the initial listing price for SuhiSwap was $1.34 on a supply of 127MM tokens; if a similar price was applied to Sovryn’s initial circulating token supply the result would be $36.21.
Just to make the average result more relevant, I tried to include projects as different as possible but part of the DeFi ecosystem (projects launched during bear markets, high token supply, small token supply, projects launched when Defi was still at the beginning etc).
Based on the above-mentioned assumptions and on the last price/SOV during the Origin sale of around $5.6/SOV I received the following results:
- we might see an initial price/SOV of $38
- The value on the resulting market cap being $182MM
This is just a forecast trying to use available data from the space.
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I think this chart was super valuable to see. And considering that BTC has 5 times the market cap of ETH… it seems possible that SOV could also acquire as much as 5 times the Implied SOV prices shown here in the short term. Thanks to the person who put this together BTW. I averaged the implied SOV prices from this list and got 0.01 BTC. Now accounting for the 5 times market cap in BTC, my estimate for SOV price is between 0.01 - 0.05 BTC per SOV within 6 months IF… and this is abig IF… RSK network can handle the scale. I’m not super confident about this right now, although admittedly ignorant. So my conservative estimate is 0.005 in the short term, 0.01 in 6 months, and as high as 0.05 in 1 year if RSK scaling is successful.
As for Evolution sale, as a Origin sale participant, it would be nice to see this price at least double for Evolution… maybe 20,000 Sats, but any higher and I think we start to choke the upside potential in the open market. I wish I got in to the Genesis sale at 2,500 Sats, but I’m also glad I don’t have a lock-up period in case I decide to trade some. I do think that there should be some proposals to seriously hook-up small balance early investors with airdrop partnerships etc. later on. And since the max contribution was 0.1 BTC pretty much everyone is small balance investors. So nobody will revolt if the price isn’t quadrupled again for Evolution. But the presale participants really should be put on some sort of early adopter airdrop list for subsequent liquidity pools, farms, etc. I agree that we don’t want the ponzi type boom and bust coins driving this ecosystem, but there will be additional bitocracies on RSK network as this project gains volume and our community could really benefit from receiving some juicy airdrops in coming months / years. Also, I’ve thought for a long time that it would be bad ass to reward some of the the earliest believers in DEXs. Can we grab a list of every ETH address that was using IDEX or any other DEX back in 2017-2018 and start airdropping these OGies who maybe haven’t gotten rich on crypto, but believed in and used this tech early on?
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Nice thoughts and explanation. Seems like a reasonable assessment. Very different from mine, but that’s a recurring experience around here, I seem to agree with everyone.
Valid points. Hard to disagree. In general rewards for early participation should be super crazy high for the first few hundred, pretty darn good for the next few thousand, and then pretty much the same for everyone else in the general market.
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An important aspect of price discovery and debate is the SOV emission schedule. Posting the most updated numbers here:
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Are people familiar with Liquidity Bootstrapping Pools LBPs? They seem like something worth looking into. A new paradigm for token distribution | by Jeremy Musighi | Balancer Protocol | Medium
OK, I’ll try, I’m just getting my head around them myself. In the context of this discussion they seem to have interesting price discovery properties.
This image might give some insight.
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Stumbled across this today too… Agree with @blueguy - seems quite an elegant implementation of a (sort of) Dutch auction (sort of = everyone pays the price they bid at rather than the final lowest price)
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Carefully studying this document doesn’t change my price prediction too much. But I guess I can imagine a scenario after the 7 year emission schedule where the price could go up dramatically as tokens are fully saturated in the market. I hope the founders sell some along the the way. Could negatively impact price having them dumping many tokens at once, but it’s also important for that 25% chunk of SOV to be slowly distributed over time.
I feel like we all understand the value of SOV and the potential we have here. We should not underestimate that having higher MC starting off will create a deterring view from other joining… being the only defi project on BTC is massive! Others notice will that fact alone and having it pegged to satoshis it will be understood why it’s growing so rapidly even in the early stages!!! Love you all and thank you for allowing me to share my views on the subject very proud to be a early contribution to this project!!! 
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This is not price estimation for when sov starts trading, just a general estimation
going entirely by the yield and ignoring the governance aspect of the tokens-
Currently Circ supply < 4,000,000
Therefore 1000 tokens = 0.025% of the supply
Sovryn charges a 0.15% fees on opening orders, assuming 80mil volume, 40mil assuming opens
40,000,000 x 0.15% = $60,000
$60,000 x 30 (month) = $1,800,000
$1,800,000 x 12 (year) = $21,600,000
Your 1000 tokens would get 0.025% of that = $5,400
Assuming a 100% Annual yield on investment (being generous), that 1000 SOV is worth $5400, 1 SOV = $5.4
Assuming a 30% Annual yield on investment, 1000 SOV is worth $18,000, meaning 1 SOV = $18
Ofcourse im assuming a lot of shit, any of these factors can change and most likely will be drastically different IRL, so plug in your own numbers and see what you think SOV should be worth.
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I posted here earlier regarding a particular type of token sale known as a liquidity bootstrapping pool which can be run on the balancer system. Another entity, Hydra DX (polkadot project) used the same system for their sale and balancer did a review of the sale and posted some of the outcomes ( good and bad) at the link below. People interested in innovative ways of selling tokens will probably be interested in checking this out Balancer Facilitates Record-High Liquidity Bootstrapping Pool For HydraDX | by Stanislav Kozlovski | Balancer Protocol | Mar, 2021 | Medium
I think this is the right way to be thinking of things - cash flow analysis. I would point out that your figures are probably low. Sovryn has already done about $8m in trade volume and hasn’t even really opened yet.
also, the way the Genesis tokens unlock at only x amout per 30 day, vs all at once
Well i assumed 80mil daily volume, and we did 10mil in the past 24 hours.